Example of a Geography Edexcel Unit 4 report

1.       Introduction

Tectonic hazards can be defined as natural events, seismic or volcanic, which potentially pose a threat to human life and property (Nagle). Tectonic hazards are distributed around the world, appearing at divergent, convergent, collision and transform boundaries with some intraplate or hotspot. Therefore the majority of earthquakes, volcanoes and tsunami’s may pose a threat to human life and property at some point, particularly as populations grow alongside urban expansion.

 A natural hazard is not necessarily a natural disaster, for example The Mid-Atlantic Ridge is away from human settlements and does not pose a risk. The Degg model (Figure 1.) highlights that a hazard only becomes a disaster that needs management when it comes into contact with vulnerable populations.

MODEL GOES HERE
	Figue 1.

 

Therefore, there is a need, or lack thereof, for a range of management strategies implemented at international, national and local levels by a multitude of key players such as Governments, NGO’s and the scientific community (USIDR). There are three core management strategies “Do Nothing, Adjust, Leave”. Do Nothing is an appropriate strategy in the case of the Mid Atlantic Ridge. Adjustment is the term for mitigation schemes such as seismic buildings, whilst Leave refers to temporary or permanent evacuation or abandonment of risk areas, as in the case of Montserrat in 1995. The capacity to implement management schemes is dependent on various factors such as economic development, government commitment and frequency of hazards.

Management is a multi-pronged approach that is arguably interconnected, occurring before, during and after a hazardous event. The traditional model in Figure 2. shows there is a cyclical and interconnected nature to effective management. This will provide a framework for the report, divided into subsections illustrating contrasting, different strategies.

	Figue 2.

 

Case studies in the report illustrate management schemes before, during and after. The oldest, however classic example, was the 1995 Kobe earthquake which illustrated long term management of over 20 years whilst the 1995 Soufriere Hills eruption highlighted an LEDC with advanced prediction methods and a “leave” strategy. The 2004 Indonesian tsunami was an example of poor before management yet enhanced mitigation in the aftermath whilst the 2005 Kashmir earthquake similarly illustrates the effect of a lack of prevention in terms of seismic buildings. The 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic eruption was used to highlight fully domestic responses whilst the 2010 Haiti earthquake was an example of external, international relief efforts. The Tohoku 2011 earthquake is an excellent example of secondary hazards in the form of a tsunami and Japanese mitigation techniques, whilst the contrasting 2013 Solomon Islands tsunami illustrated inadequate infrastructure. Contemporary examples such as the 2013 Pakistan earthquake exhibited a lack of prediction whilst the 2014 Chile earthquake highlights the capacity of an LEDC to have stringent seismic codes, the 2014 Mount Sinabung eruption highlights management during as the activity is ongoing.

The Park model (figure 3.) shows deterioration occurs during a hazard yet it highlights the chance for subsequent improvement after. The Park Model shows the point at which mitigation techniques can be applied for improvement to increase a county’s capacity to cope. However, improvement may not be available or achievable for all nations, namely Haiti who are still in the deterioration stage. Management strategies need to be effectively implemented and enforced to lead to progression.

	Figue 3.

 

2.       Methodology

To facilitate this report a wide breadth of sources were used. Internet websites such as up to date, journalistic BBC News and the Guardian were used for contemporary case studies. However, these may have included some bias so were used in conjunction with Medicines Sans Frontier.org, USGS and livescience to eliminate personal opinion bias. When researching management schemes using key player websites was effective as they were actively part of the response. Text books including Dunn et al were used for models whilst reliable academic resources such as Geography Review, Geofactsheet 30 and Geofile 133 contributed to research. However, government websites were not used due to potential bias, dishonesty or political motives. Quantitative and qualitative sources were used simultaneously to provide objective and in depth valid data. A range of data was used for comparability for example whilst an unreliable blog reported the death toll of the Tohoku Earthquake in 2011 as 18,000, Geography Review, a more reliable source, reported 16,000. Amongst written sources documentaries such as Ian Stewarts “Top 10” and BBC horizon “Japan Earthquake” were used to collate an extensive range of sources to eliminate bias and discrepancies.

3.             Analysis

3.1         Before

Management strategies are crucial before the disaster has occurred, to minimise the economic and human losses. However, governments and the scientific community hold most responsibility in management before an event (ISPUB).

3.1.1          Risk Assessment

Risk assessments, identifying areas and people that may be at risk of a disaster before a disaster occurs, are essential. The Hyogo Framework (a UN global blueprint for disaster risk reduction) suggests “Governments must know the risks they face in order to supply effective reduction strategies”.

i.                     Earthquake and Tsunami Risk Assessment
This involves assessing durability and safety of structures, vulnerable populations such as elderly or disabled, economic structure and capacity to cope. For example Japan carried out a risk assessment on the Fukushima Daiichi  nuclear plant in 2007 and concluded there was a 10% risk of a tsunami breaching the 6 metre wall however the 2011 tsunami caused by the earthquake was 14 metres high (Geography Review) suggesting risk assessments cannot predict the severity of an earthquake or tsunami.

ii.                   Volcanic Eruption Risk Assessment
In addition, volcano risk assessment includes devising an exclusion zone and the proximity of airports as volcanic ash can severely disrupt flights, as in the case of 195,000 flights during the 2010 Eyjafjallajokull eruption. Once risk assessment is completed management strategies aimed at modifying the event and the vulnerability can be implemented.

3.1.2          Prediction

Prediction is a strategy that despite involving costly, technical equipment and ultimately there is an inability to fully predict an earthquake or eruption, provides a chance for governments to foresee an event; it is crucial for providing early warnings that save lives. There is a multitude of prediction methods. For example Japan has an extensive network of seismometers called the JMA (Japanese Meteorological Agency) which monitor primary and secondary waves which helped predict the Tohoku earthquake (Top 10). Whereas Pakistan, due to finance and the presence of the Taliban, has little prediction or monitoring, which contributed to the high death toll of 350 in the 2013 earthquake, as the area around the Chaman fault is too dangerous for scientists to monitor due to the terrorist situation at present (livescience).  A lack of prediction means events are completely unprecedented therefore rescue efforts will be slower, prediction equates time which is crucial with a tectonic hazard.

i.                     Prediction Methods
A historic strategy is monitoring animal behaviour which is mainly used in LEDC’s such as Pakistan, as reliance on agriculture means more awareness of anomalous behaviour, which can signify tremors as animals can feel minor foreshocks.
Also, technical strategies used by Montserrat Volcano Observatory such as measuring increased levels of sulphur dioxide and satellite images to monitor bulges in a volcano’s sides. Recently prediction has incorporated prediction of tsunami’s with the Pacific and Indian Ocean Tsunami warning systems, in response to the 2004 Indonesian tsunami, which monitor changes in pressure on the sea bed and transmit predictions via satellites. However these facilities can produce false predictions, which are met with hostility from local residents, for example in 2007 angry residents disabled a tsunami early warning system in the Indonesian region due to it sending out false warnings on false predictions causing evacuation. (theguardian)

ii.                   Early Warnings
Iceland has an effective early warning system text service, as when Eyjafjallajokull showed high gas levels in 2010, they were able to send out a text 30 minutes prior to the eruption giving individuals time to prepare. In contrast sirens were used to warn of further eruptions from Mount Sinabung in 2014 (USGS). It has been estimated that over 3 million lives have been saved due to early warning systems in the last 40 years (geography review). 

3.1.3          Prevention

Whilst it is impossible to prevent an earthquake or volcanic eruption it is possible to prevent impacts

i.                     Seismic Codes. “Earthquakes don’t kill people, buildings do” (Geofactsheet 133), the vast majority of injuries, death and economic losses come from the collapsing of buildings. Japan have invested in seismic codes as a before strategy whose success was exemplified in Kobe. The majority of Japan’s buildings prior to the Kobe earthquake in 1995 were built to “kyu-tiashin” standards which could withstand some intensity however stronger codes were introduced called “shin-tiashin”, during the earthquake only 0.3% of shin-tiashin buildings suffered damage whilst 8.4% of kyu-tiashin collapsed or were damaged (japanpropertycentral). In contrast in LEDC the Solomon Islands in 2013, many buildings were made out of mud brick due to not implementing this strategy, which collapsed due to the shaking, the subsequent tsunami washed the entire Nela village away (BBC news). This highlights the need for stringent, enforced and up to date seismic building codes.

ii.                   Exclusion Zones
A prevention strategy for volcanic eruptions is that of exclusion zones, this takes the “Leave” strategy as a temporary or in the case of Montserrat, permanent exclusion zone is set up around the volcano (Geography review). This physically prevents loss of life however displaces individuals and disrupts livelihoods. The Southern half of the island is inaccessible to prevent deaths in the event of a further eruption. This shows the ability of an LEDC to implement prevention strategies, however this could be due to the island being a British colony as 4000 residents were able to move out of the exclusion zone to safety in Britain (theguardian)

iii.                  Evacuation
 Often evacuation is haphazard (hphighcourt) or mismanaged, for example Mount Sinabung erupted in September 2013, the government evacuated the area temporarily and allowed 14,000 residents back home within 1 month. However, the volcano erupted again in January 2014 thus people had to be evacuated again or were trapped in their homes by the ash cloud (bbcnews). In contrast, before the earthquake in L’aquila in 2009 the government, due to predictions, organised an evacuation, however this was abandoned. Evacuation is crucial yet often poorly managed.

Prevention is an effective way of removing or reducing the risk however exclusion zones means the displacement of residents and many LEDC’s cannot afford seismic buildings or their priorities may be to tackle a day to day issue of poverty, however Chile has stringent seismic codes which are strictly enforced.

3.2         During

Once a tectonic hazard has occurred, there are different forms of management strategies for which success is dependent on quick mobilisation. During a disaster, key players are most important; these can be split into domestic such as government and international such as NGO’s.  Relief ranges from locals with little machinery responding first to those trapped under rubble which was the case in Kashmir in 2005, to military intervention with large machines to lift rubble used in Chile 2014. Relief strategies include rescuing survivors, creating temporary camps for homeless, putting out secondary hazards of fires, and providing medicines, food and water.

3.2.1          Domestic strategy

Domestic strategies are relief efforts that come from the government and bodies within the country. The ability to deal with a disaster domestically is rare, however Iceland’s responses to the Eyjafjallajokull earthquake in 2010 was entirely domestic (geotalk). Part of the strategy from the government was to mobilise emergency teams to channel lava by bulldozing a main road, this prevented lava from reaching nearby villages. Iceland is an MEDC and therefore had the financial capacity to fund purely domestic emergency aid and strategies.

3.2.1.1 Key Players
Key players in domestic responses are predominantly governments. For example, in the recent April 2014 Chile earthquake, President Bachelet mobilised military teams to provide man power to physically rescue people and keep order and prevent looting in a time of panic as security is often at risk (bbc news). The Japanese government sought to deal with the 9.0 Tohoku earthquake domestically and thus refused much foreign aid. A Chinese naval ship equipped with medical supplies was refused whilst the US providing coolant to the Fukushima nuclear plant was also refused (ENENEWS). The sheer magnitude meant domestic responses were limited and the refusal of foreign aid may have hindered the relief stage.

 A contrasting key player is that of the individual, it is their responsibility to follow plans and seek personal safety. However, also during the Tohoku earthquake only 58% of residents in Miyagi sought higher ground (livescience), this meant many people were killed by the secondary hazard due to failure to follow information in place. In the 2005 Kashmir earthquake, early relief was largely in the hands of untrained, unequipped local people. This highlights that both large governments and individuals are part of the domestic response during a hazard as they are the first to respond.

3.2.2          International strategies

In contrast to domestic strategies are international strategies and humanitarian which aim to supply emergency teams and money. International responses come in the form of international aid from other countries for example Britain gave $10million towards relief efforts in Haiti after the 2010 earthquake. Other strategies are charities such as Medicine’s Sans Frontier’s (MSF) and the Red Cross who entered within 36 hours (bbcnews) and individual funding such as the Hope for Haiti campaign and song which alone raised $58 million (mtv.com). Due to Haiti’s poor governance, poverty and corruption there was a lack of domestic aid and responses which caused such an influx of foreign aid and foreign NGO’s. The international aid provided supplies, temporary camps and large amounts of monetary aid to respond to the disaster.
3.2.2.1 Key players
Key players for an international response are governments as they provide bilateral emergency aid but the role of NGO’s and the media is highly important. MSF provided its largest humanitarian response to the Haiti earthquake. NGO’s are particularly important because they can ignore political and territorial disputes and religious ideology (Moore et al). However, during the Kashmir earthquake in 2005, local residents who are Muslim protested against female relief workers and male workers working with female locals due to their beliefs. This suggests that foreign NGO’s cannot compete with domestic responses as they do not know the local needs and customs and may supply inappropriate aid. NGO’s were criticised for marginalising Haitian NGO’s (thenation) and quickly creating camps that consequently created a tertiary hazard of a cholera epidemic, this may mean Haiti may not reach the point of improvement on the Park Model (figure 3.). This could suggest international aid is not always the best strategy particularly as refugee camps create further hazards, however the money accumulated by international funds is unmatched by domestic.

Similarly, the role of the international media is beneficial. The media and social networking sites in recent years have provided instantaneous updates on natural disasters which in turn have prompted large campaigns such as “Pray for Japan” and “Hope for Haiti” from around the globe. The internet and media has facilitated more international involvement in relief phase strategies which has contributed to funding, whilst NGO’s provide quick, humanitarian assistance as part of their strategy to manage the immediate effects of a hazard.

3.3   After

As the Park model shows (Figure 3.) management after a disaster is essential for returning back to normality but also offers a chance for improvement. The Hyogo Framework stresses the need for mitigation in this stage and incorporating disaster risk reduction into development.  

3.3.1          Rehabilitation

Rehabilitation is a post disaster stage of management, it encompasses strategies to reinstate lifelines such as water whilst supporting communities and individuals recover from trauma.  

i.                     Temporary reconstruction

After the 2014 Mount Sinabung eruption five halls, normally used for traditional cultural ceremonies were converted into shelters with at least 1,500 being temporarily housed (bbcnews).. During the Haiti earthquake NGO’s began setting up camps immediately, which instead of being temporary are still in use now (publicintegrity). Temporary reconstruction helps rebuild lifelines yet in LEDC’s it often becomes semi-permanent thus they remain in deterioration (figure.3).

i.                     Psychosocial support
Psychosocial support helps individuals and communities to heal the psychological wounds. However, despite much of Kobe having been completely restored physically, many communities have not. Despite being 18 years on from the disaster, much psychological and community damage has not been adequately repaired suggesting the need for psychosocial support (theguardian).

However, psychosocial support has been an effective strategy after the eruption of Eyjafjallajokull in 2010. The Icealandic Red Cross, provided counselling particularly for traumatised children and activated a 24 hour hotline for individuals to seek psychological support (reliefweb). It can change passive victims into active survivors (ifrc.org).

3.3.2          Reconstruction

Reconstruction is the stage in which permanent changes are introduced. It is at this pivotal point that governments can implement mitigation strategies. There is a striking contrast between the reconstruction in MEDC’s and LEDC’s as reconstruction relies upon resources, funding and government commitment.

i.                    Rebuilding
Rebuilding is only necessary for the adjust strategy not permanent leave as in Montserrat. Strategies include rebuilding physical infrastructure, which has been successful in Kobe after the 1995 earthquake, the restoration of lifelines, railways, roads and harbours were focused on, and all restored to their previous states within three years (chinaup.com). However Kobe has been at a stagnant 80% recovery since the earthquake, this translates as all physical infrastructure has been rebuilt yet victims livelihoods have not. The Japanese government funded $58billion towards reconstruction.  Also this wide-scale rebuilding inevitably took time to accomplish, and in 2003, many projects were still in the construction stages.

In contrast rebuilding after the 2013 Solomon Islands tsunami has been successful, NGO Anglican Overseas has provided over 500 solar panels in the reconstruction of villages to provide sustainable energy as electricity was compromised in the disaster. This could reflect Park’s model (figure.3) as the reconstruction strategy here has provided improvements above former normality and contributed to MDG 7 in providing sustainable energy.  Reconstruction can help improve societies above normality, however it is often a long time before this is completed or recognisable.

3.3.3          Mitigation

Mitigation is both part of the Before and After stage. This involves aspects such as insurance, The benefit of using mitigation strategies after a disaster is strategies can be based on the downfalls of the most recent response to provide a more prepared nation with a greater capacity to cope.

i.                     Seismic building and land use zoning can be implemented in this stage.  For example LEDC Chile, due to earthquakes from the 1960’s to 2013 has used reconstruction as a stage for mitigation and has enforced, stringent building codes which helped reduce the impacts of the 2014 earthquake (nbcnews.com). However, LDC Haiti has struggled to rebuild with mitigation in mind. Much of Haiti’s rebuilding has been the construction of makeshift, shanty towns using tarpaulin supplied during the rehabilitation phase. Little permanent reconstruction has occurred and this type of infrastructure is the most vulnerable to future hazards.

ii.                   Mortuary sites

Tectonic hazards often produce large death tolls for example the Haiti earthquake 2010 accrued over 316,000 deaths (CNN) and Montserrat eruption of 1995 killed 23 people (SLN.org). Nations are often underprepared for this unprecedented amount of dead bodies, lacking mortuary sites, freezers and burial guidelines which is often a reason for tertiary hazards of diseases. For example during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, Thailand and Indonesia lacked burial sites and the correct refrigeration for human remains. As part of the reconstruction phase mortuary sites can be devised and mass fatality plans to mitigate further hazards of disease (plosmedicine).

During both rehabilitation and reconstruction stages of the Park Model (figure 3.)  are the opportunities to mitigate against future hazards. The Hyogo Framework is a mitigation framework guiding strategies before, during and after to manage a disaster from beginning to end.  

4.0       Conclusion

Tectonic hazards frequently coincide with human settlements meaning there is a vital need for management strategies before, during and after a hazard to prevent, reduce and restore human and economic losses. Due to this overlap of vulnerable populations and hazards (Figure. 1) “adjust” and “leave” are more appropriate strategies that incorporate methods of prediction, prevention, rescue and reconstruction. There is such a contrast in strategies due to appropriateness of strategies for the type of hazard, frequency and management successes reliance on economic development and government prioritisation.

There are, however, anomalies, Chile and Montserrat have invested in prediction and prevention strategies despite being LEDC’s. Chile has prioritised disaster management through strict seismic building codes (CNN), whilst Montserrat has one of the most advanced prediction observatories in the world. This highlights how government commitment and economic development can be mutually exclusive.

There is a cyclical nature to disaster management, the three phases before, during and after are interconnected as the traditional model shows (figure. 2). Without adequate before strategies, the need for during and after strategies will be greater, as will losses. It could be argued before and mitigation strategies are most important as if they are successfully provided they should eliminate or reduce the impacts of the hazard which can reduce the need for any rescue, rehabilitation or reconstruction.

Finally, as the Hyogo Framework states, disaster management strategies must be a priority in all development plans, in all governmental plans and integrated into daily life to create a culture of preparedness.

5.0 Bibliography

·         Nagle

·         Moore et al

·         Dunn et al – Phillip Alan Text Book

·         Bbcnews.co.uk

·         USIDR

·         Theguardian.co.uk

·         Medicinessansfrontiers.org

·         USGS

·         Livescience.co.uk

·         Geography Review

·         Geofactsheet 30

·         Geofile 133

·         Blogspot.com

·         Japanpropertycentral.com

·         Hphighcourt.com

·         Geotalk.com

·         ENENEWS.com

·         MTV.com

·         Thenation.com

·         Publicintegrity.org

·         Ifrc.org

·         Reliefweb.org

·         Scielo.com

·         Chinaup.com

·         Nbcnews.com

·         CNN.com

·         SLN.org

·         Plosmedicine.org